A look ahead: Forecasting Canada’s immigration outlook and disruptors between 2020-2029


The last decade was the most eventful in Canadian immigration history.It also saw a significant increase in the level of Canada’s permanent residents, international students and foreign workers. The complete revival of Canada’s economic class program was one of the other major changes that also affected the country’s family and refugee class programs.

It is expected that there will be more major changes in the coming decade, given Canada’s disproportionate need for immigrants.

Canada aims to welcome more than 3 million permanent residents over the coming decade

Canada’s increasing population and low birth rate are the main reasons why we should expect the country to welcome higher levels of immigration in the coming decade.

The population of Canada grows by about one percent each year. Natural growth (births subtracted from deaths) accounts for only 20 percent of annual population growth and another 80 percent. Within the next decade, natural growth is expected to drop to almost zero, meaning that immigration could cover 100 percent of Canada’s population growth.

Population growth is important to encourage the economic activity necessary to maintain Canada’s high quality of life. Therefore, if Canada wants its population to continue to grow by one percent or more annually, it will have to gradually raise its newcomer levels from its target of 35021 in 2021 to about 400,000 annually by the end of the decade.

All told, Canada is set to welcome around 3.5 million permanent residents in the coming decade – by far the highest intake in the nation’s history. This would mark a 25 percent increase compared to the 2.8 million permanent residents admitted over the past few decades.

Local actors will play a greater role in the selection of immigrants

Based on the argument that provinces and employers have a strong understanding of local labor market requirements, the federal government of Canada has provided provinces, employers, and post-secondary institutions with A large role in immigrant selection in the last two decades.

This deviation from the selection authority will likely continue.

Now this time Canadian provinces select around 40,000 key applicants (PAs) annually – a figure that should exceed 50,000 PAs annually if the federal government raises immigration levels as expected.

Although the Constitution of Canada outlines immigration as an area of   shared federal-provincial jurisdiction,municipalities are also playing a greater role in the immigration system since most immigrants land in cities. 

Immigrants will continue to advocate a greater voice in selection, although Canada’s immigration system is already complex, given that it is difficult to implement – the federal government and the province collectively operate more than 80 available economic class routes .

However, the selection of municipalities through the ensuing will have a greater impact Federal Municipal Corporation Nominee Program (MNP) as well as the existing Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) streams, which are sensitive to the reality that would provide cities for selection

Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia are set to see a drop in their immigration shares

A greater role for local actors helps promote the wider distribution of immigration and economic development in Canada.

Today, about 70 percent of immigrants move to Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia before the launch of PNP, down from around 85 percent.

he share of newcomers landing in these three provinces should decline as other provinces continue to have aggressive global talent. For example, Atlantic Canada has seen a three percent to five percent increase in its national newcomer share a few years ago, and there is room for more growth.

In addition, Quebec has reduced its newcomer intake by 20 percent, meaning there are now 10,000 additional immigrants for distribution across Canada. Even though the province chooses to lower its immigration level later this decade, they will likely lag behind Canada’s growth rate even after Quebec prefers a more cautious approach to raising levels.

Improvements in global oil prices may also once again reverse Alberta’s immigration intake. The province’s economy and newcomer levels had skyrocketed in 2014 as global oil prices crashed. There is a synergy between the two, but if oil prices improve, Alberta could easily overtake Quebec and British Columbia to become the second-largest place of immigrants behind Ontario, Canada.

International students will help improve the economic outcomes of newcomers

As Canada’s nine million baby boomers inch toward retirement, the country will be in significant need of new workers. There will be plenty of employment opportunities and Canadian-born workers and migrants alike should benefit from these changes. We have seen this disclosure by itself over the past decade as federal government data shows that immigrants are enjoying strong results. Federal research also shows that providing provinces, employers, and secondary institutions with a role in the selection process supports positive immigrant labor market performance.

Surveys indicate that half of Canada’s 600,000 students indicate that they aspire to become permanent residents, meaning Canada is more likely to see it becoming an immigrant this decade. they would become major drivers of economic growth since being workers and consumers in Canada for decades.

Canadian immigration will also be disrupted

Canada is able to welcome high levels of newcomers due to strong public support for immigration. While this should remain cognitive, populism will certainly impede Canada’s ability to promote economic growth through immigration, as public sentiment toward newcomers increases.

However, the fact that immigrants would comprise a larger proportion of Canada’s population could save it from increasing populism in the coming decades, given that immigrants mainly live in Canada’s largest cities – those who have Is the most politically dominated.

The decline in populist policies abroad may also disrupt Canada’s immigration system. If Western democracies such as Britain and the United States choose to improve their economic class programs to welcome more immigrants, Canada will face a competitive threat.

Increasing prosperity in developing countries can also reduce the flow of immigrants and international students to Canada and result in greater competition. For example, China is making major investments in its education system and is now one of the world’s leading students.

To know any further you can call us on -+91 9810366117  and also mail us at- Info@worldoverseasimmigration.com 

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